Overvalued Fantasy Players
Like outlet malls and thrift shops, fantasy drafts are all about finding value. Reaching for the wrong player at the wrong time can be the difference between mediocrity and a dominant championship run. That’s why the importance of mock-drafting can never be understated. Understanding where certain players are falling can help you formulate a strategy heading into draft night, that way you’re not making half-assed decisions on the fly. Draft boards are ultimately dictated by a player’s ADP, or Average Draft Position. The fact of the matter is, ADP can be drastically influenced by variables like recency bias and player popularity - which isn’t a trustworthy indication of that player’s fantasy value. In this article, I take a quick look at four players whose ADP’s seem inflated.
Amari Cooper
I will own exactly 0 Amari Cooper shares in 2020. Coop is an elite talent, but he’s a much better WR on the field than he is in your fantasy lineup. He finished the year as WR9 in 2019, but 40% of Cooper’s fantasy production came in just 3 games. He was also WR29 Weeks 10-17, while Michael Gallup was WR9 in that stretch - and now we have to throw CeeDee Lamb into the mix. I have Cooper ranked as WR20, and his ECR is WR14. I don’t doubt that Cooper coul finish as a high WR2 or maybe even a low WR1, but I can’t support that level of volatility in a 3rd round pick. He’ll win you a few weeks, but you’ll be cursing his performance on Sundays more often than not.
Le’Veon Bell
I really like Le’Veon, but I hate Adam Gase. Bell’s RB17 finish in 2019 was heavily reliant upon a massive yet inefficient workload. An improved Jets offense should improve the former RB1’s efficiency rating, but Gase’s recent comments have potential fantasy owners scratching their heads. Gase and Bell’s tumultuous past is well-documented, and now the crazy-eyed shot caller is praising Frank Gore’s performance in training camp. Gase and Gore are familiar with one another from their time in Miami, when Gore collected 156 carries and 12 receptions. Not only will Frank Gore be an annoying thorn in the side of Le’Veon Bell owners, but Gase made yet another curious decision over the weekend when he traded a 7th round pick for another Miami Dolphin RB; Kalen Ballage. Gase clearly isn’t a big Le’Veon guy, and neither am I at his current 3rd round ADP.
DeVante Parker
We’d been patiently awaiting the arrival of DeVante Parker for 4 years, and the former first round pick finally delivered last season. He’d never finished better than WR50 in his previous four seasons, but a monumental second half in 2019 provided stellar WR7 production. That’s part of my concern. For one, Parker was WR41 in Weeks 1-8 while Preston Williams was still on the field - then WR2 in Weeks 9-17 following Williams’ ACL injury. Williams is fully healthy again, and while that level of production from Parker certainly isn’t an indictment on his potential, it’s concerning to me that the QB he developed such a strong rapport with is only a placeholder for Tua Tagovailoa. I leave you with this note, Devante also has to line up against Stephon Gilmore and Tre’davious White in 25% of his games. I don’t like him in my lineup as a WR2.
Jonathan Taylor
Am I the only one who’s not all in on Jonathan Taylor? I’m certainly not doubting his talent at the position, but are we forgetting how good Marlon Mack was last year? Mack finished as RB20 in 14 games played, and Nyheim Hines remains one of the best pass catchers in the league coming out of the backfield. There are talks out of Colts training camp that Taylor has had recent drop issues, and HC Frank Reich has never eluded to anything other than a split backfield. Drafting Taylor as RB18 ahead of names like Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Melvin Gordon feels fishy to me. Maybe he wins the job over later in the season, but I want my 3rd or 4th round pick making major contributions in Week 1. The former Wisconsin Badger is too expensive for me to invest in.
