The TE Position is Not Dead
Beyond all doubt, no group in fantasy football has been as frustratingly top-heavy as the TE position. For the last half decade or so, if you didn’t own an upper echelon TE like Robert Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, or Travis Kelce - you were left with crumbs. That positional imbalance often created a significant matchup dilemma that forced owners to make a difficult decision with regards to their draft strategy; how early should I be drafting my TE? I’m here to tell you that the 2020 TE landscape is as deep as it’s ever been in the last five or six years. Make no mistake, there are still ‘tiers’ to consider, but I’m of the belief that you’ll have the ability to find value much deeper in the draft this season compared to last. Let me explain.
Each figure is calculated by subtracting the corresponding season’s TE Point Total from the 2019 TE Point Total.
Example: 2019TE1 - 2018TE1 = -37.3
Positive figures (green) indicate that the 2019 TE outperformed previous seasons.
Negative figures (red) indicate that the 2019 TE was outscored.
Take a look at my scoring analysis over the past three NFL seasons. What you’ll find is the top twelve 2019 TE’s have largely outperformed previous years. Sure - Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle regressed to the mean following their respective record-breaking 2018 campaigns - but these numbers could be indicating a trend towards a higher-scoring, yet more balanced TE landscape. Let’s ignore the elite outliers, TE5-7 have outscored their predecessors in each of the past three seasons, and by a considerable volume. Bear with me here - the average point total for TE1-4 in 2019 was 184.3 pts, the second highest total since 2016. The average point total for TE5-8 in 2019 was 149.43, which turned out to be the highest scoring average of that group since 2016. When we take the difference between TE1-4 and TE5-8 in 2019, we find that they only differed by 34.8 points (the second smallest margin since 2016). “Enough with the numbers. Tom, what’re you saying?” Those numbers tell me that the top eight tight ends are becoming more balanced, without any drastic forfeiture of points scored. In other words, the difference in value between TE3 and TE8 is becoming harder to define.
Maybe you’re not a numbers guy - that’s fine. Sometimes it’s best to ignore analysis paralysis and just go with your gut. With various pieces falling into place over the course of NFL free agency, how can you not get excited about the TE landscape? Let’s review. Hunter Henry was franchise tagged which means he’ll remain in Los Angeles. Austin Hooper signed with the Cleveland Browns, and Hayden Hurst was traded to Atlanta to take his place. Eric Ebron penned a two year contract with the Steelers, which leaves Jack Doyle all alone in Indianapolis. Given Tom Brady’s well-documented reliance on the position, could OJ Howard be primed for a bounceback year? What about a healthy pair of New York TE’s in Evan Engram and Chris Herndon? Could TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant establish themselves as regular contributors in their sophomore campaigns? Remember how Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith capped off their 2019 seasons? Hell, Gronk is back! Each and every one of those players deserves to be rostered in twelve team leagues this season, most of whom have a legitimate shot at being a top twelve TE at season’s end.
The point that I want to drive home is this; if you’ve ever wanted to gamble on a late round TE in fantasy football, this is the year to do it. There’s massive potential up and down the board, so you shouldn't feel pressured to spend your 3rd or 4th round pick on an elite option if you’re comfortable taking a calculated risk later in the draft. Because the payout could be huge.
