Way-Too-Early 2021 Mock Draft (Round 1 & 2)

With the 2020 Fantasy Season in the books, why not jump the gun and start prepping for next August? Besides, what could possibly change over the course of the next 8 months?  Leave your judgment at home, sickos like me consider fantasy football to be a year-round dedication. Let’s take a peak at what the first two rounds may look like next draft season.

1.01 Dalvin Cook, RB1

The 1.01 spot in snake drafts next season won’t be as clear-cut as it was in 2020. Last season, you would’ve been a fool to select anyone but Christian McCaffrey first overall. Granted, that may not have worked out for you - but 2021 offers a number of different avenues to consider. Me? I’m riding with Dalvin. Volume is often king in fantasy football, and we all know what HC Mike Zimmer wants to do with his offense. Cook is a monster between the tackles, he’s electric in space, and he’s proficient through the air. And for a guy who’s oft been criticised for his inability to stay on the field, that’s two straight seasons now where he’s played 14+ games.

1.02 Christian McCaffrey, RB2

Don’t let recency bias get the best of you! Yes - McCaffrey battled a high ankle sprain, a rib injury, and some sort of quad ailment which collectively forced him to miss all but three games in 2020. If we look at just those three weeks though (Week 1, 2, & 9), CMC was RB1. This past season was one to forget, but do you remember how historic his 2019 season was? Let me put it into perspective for you. This season, Alvin Kamara is RB1 in Weeks 1-16 with 336.3 points. In 2019, McCaffrey was RB1 in Weeks 1-16 with 393.9 points. At 100%, nobody - and I mean nobody - is better than Christian McCaffrey when it comes to fantasy football. Keep in mind, he hadn’t missed a single game in his previous three seasons.

1.03 Alvin Kamara, RB3

After single-handedly winning thousands upon thousands of fantasy championships with his superhuman 6 TD performance on Christmas Day, I understand it may be difficult to pass on the guy at 1.01. And let me be clear, he’s very deserving of the pick. He’s now caught 80+ passes in all four seasons, he’s the poster child for efficiency metrics, and he’s a redzone machine. My only reservations are these: Drew Brees’ affinity for checkdown passes has heavily boosted Kamara’s fantasy production, and I don’t think Michael Thomas is going to ‘disappear’ from this offense. I would expect some regression in 2021, but you’d be crazy to let him fall past third overall.

1.04 Derrick Henry, RB4

The back-to-back rushing king! You’d think this sort of sustained workload would take its toll on Henry’s body, but it seems he delivers the punishment more himself. With Henry, you can take his 20+ high leverage carries to the bank each and every Sunday, with a near unparalleled upside. The only bummer with Derrick Henry is his lack of involvement in the passing game. So while you’re often blessed with the signature “26 rush for 152 and 2 TD” game, you also run the risk of a few “20 rush for 86 yards and 0 TD” games. Yeah - it’s nitpicky, but it’s the truth. That’s why I have him just a notch below the top three.

1.05 Saquon Barkley, RB5

The 1.05 spot is going to be especially peculiar. Do you play it safe and go with the top receiver on the board? Or do you roll the dice with Saquon Barkely, a massively talented star coming off season-ending ACL surgery. The good news is that Saquon’s injury occurred early enough in the season to allow for a likely full recovery before training camp in 2021. The Penn State star’s rookie season has been largely overshadowed by injury the past two seasons, so this slight draft discount may pay dividends to those willing to run the risk. The NYG offense was underwhelming all season behind an improving yet still inexperienced offensive line. Expect Saquon to lead the charge again in 2021.

1.06 Davante Adams, WR1

It’s hard to imagine any other WR moving ahead of Davante Adams in fantasy drafts. That’s no slight to Tyreek Hill, but unlike KC and Patrick Mahomes - when Aaron Rodgers drops back, we know exactly where he wants to go with the ball. And defenses still seemingly can’t do anything about it. He’s the whole package at WR; #1 in Target Share, #1 in YAC, #1 in Red Zone Targets, #3 in Receptions, and #3 in Receiving Yards. Even if Green Bay looks for help at wideout via the draft or free agency, you should still feel confident with Tae as your WR1.

1.07 Tyreek Hill, WR2

The greatest homerun hitter in sports since the great Barry Bonds himself. The upside is truly historic, and the floor is awfully high itself. Hill recorded just two single digit performances in 2020, while posting 13+ points in 80% of his games played. 33% of his games resulted in 20+ points, most notably his 51.4 point explosion against the Bucs in Week 12. If that doesn’t do it for you, he’s the fastest weapon in the NFL playing with the top quarterback in the NFL, with a wizard play-caller who knows how to get the ball in his hands.

1.08 Nick Chubb, RB6

The Stafanski scheme in Cleveland proved to be an effective model; run the hell out of the ball with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, then get Baker outside of the pocket off play action. Chubb clearly liked the new offensive philosophy as well, the third year back finished north of 1,000 yards rushing despite missing 5.5 games with a knee sprain. I wouldn’t expect anything less in 2021, even with Kareem Hunt still around. Those two have proven time and time again that they’re both worthwhile investments in fantasy football despite the timeshare. If you’re devoted to draft a RB in the first round and you’re somewhere in the 6-8 range, look no further than Mr. Chubb.

1.09 D.K. Metcalf, WR3

He’s a beast, he’s the next T.O., he’s only 23. He’s only going to get better, which is a scary thought for 49er fans like myself. From a fantasy standpoint, his play style makes me slightly apprehensive when considering the Ole Miss product as a first round investment. 18th in Target Share, #53 in Hog Rate, and 16th in Receptions. Then again, he was 5th in Receiving Yards, 4th in Deep Targets, and #3 in Air Yards. Translation: Russ likes to look his way on down the field plays. Given his popularity and dominance on the field - if you want DK, you’re probably gonna have to pull the trigger in the late first or early second round. He’ll almost certainly be the third or fourth WR off the board.

1.10 Travis Kelce, TE1

I’m pretty outspoken about my unwillingness to select TEs in the early rounds, but Travis Kelce keeps proving me wrong. Kelce’s numbers would constitute him as WR3 right now, which is absolutely ridiculous. For reference, Darren Waller’s 202.9 fantasy points at TE2 would equate to WR11. For a position that is so barren beyond the likes of Kittle and Waller, drafting Travis Kelce gives you an immediate advantage over the rest of the league.

1.11 Austin Ekeler, RB7

Ekeler’s first full shot at being a premier back was cut short due to a devastating hamstring injury that forced him to miss 7.5 games, but man did he look good out there. He doesn’t even need to be prolific between the tackles to be an effective RB1. 12ish carries with 5+ catches should make your mouth water considering how electric the LAC offense looked with Justin Herbert at the helm. The unheralded star might have received more headlines from the fantasy community had he found the endzone more often. But hey, the guy recorded 100+ yards from scrimmage in five of his eight full games played. That’s special.

1.12 James Robinson, RB8

Maybe it’s just because I found this diamond in the rough in the 16th round last season, but James RB1son quickly became one of my favorite players in the league. The undrafted rookie finished the season with 1070 yards rushing in 14 games, along with 344 receiving yards on 49 catches. If that doesn’t do it for you, he did all of this with lackluster QB play on a team that rarely benefitted him with positive gamescripts. He’s a tough, physical, one-cut back who benefitted from the league’s top ranked Opportunity Share at the position. JRob is still on a team-friendly rookie contract, so I can’t imagine the Jaguars wasting cap space or a draft pick on a tailback to replace their young star. I can’t wait to see what the Jags’ offense looks like with Trevor Lawrence under center.

2.01 Josh Jacobs, RB9

I’ll be curious to see how Josh Jacob’s preseason hype unfolds over the summer. If you’ll remember, many analysts had Jacobs as a top five back who’d record 60+ catches after word broke out that the Raiders “wanted to get him more touches in the passing game”. Well, that didn’t happen - but the second year pro still had a quality season. Nagging ankle, knee, and hip injuries may have taxed his upside a bit, but an RB9 finish with 1200+ yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs is nothing to scoff at. With this pick, I’m betting on a rebound.

2.02 DeAndre Hopkins, WR4

Remember when we were all concerned about continuity last season? “Nuk’s on a new team!” “No training camp!” “Kyler isn’t as good as Deshaun!” Well, those who selected DeAndre Hopkins in the late second round were blessed with a stellar WR6 finish and there’s no reason we shouldn’t see more of the same in his second season in Arizona. Especially when you consider he and Kyler Murray will have an entire offseason to build on their already strong rapport.

2.03 Aaron Jones, RB10

There’s still a ton to unfold here. Aaron Jones is an unrestricted free agent, so there’s no guarantee the pride of UTEP will suit up in a Packers uniform next season. Apparently Jones is seeking new representation and there has reportedly been no progress towards a new contract. Contract negotiations aside, if Aaron Jones is indeed a Green Bay Packer next season, he’s very much worthy of a second round investment. Sort of like Alvin Kamara - Jones doesn’t need elite volume to put RB1 numbers together. He’s as dynamic as they come in the open field, and he’s as good of a home run hitter as any other RB in football. With so much uncertainty, it’s hard to determine where Jones’s ADP will fall.

2.04 Jonathan Taylor, RB11

Am I too low on Johnathan Taylor here? I just might be. He cost a pretty penny in fantasy drafts last season, and truthfully he was largely disappointing during the first half. But those who managed to hold on tight and weather the storm were greeted with fantasy heroism in the second half, as the rook was RB6 in Weeks 9-16. Marlon Mack (who’s still recovering from a season-ending achilles injury) is now an unrestricted free agent, and though Nyheim Hines is still under contract, the two backs proved to coexist just fine. Taylor’s late season hot streak will skyrocket his ADP,, and he’ll assuredly be one of the first twelve tailbacks to come off the board.

2.05 Julio Jones, WR5

Look. Julio is still Julio, and I think we’d be fools to believe there still isn’t plenty of air in those tires. The hamstring was an issue all season long, so he’ll benefit from a long restful offseason. We’ll uncover more about Julio’s durability come training camp, but this guy is a bonafide WR1 whenever he’s on the field. Of course, if Matt Ryan departs, then the Alabama vet’s ADP will slide into the 3rd or 4th round.

2.06 Stefon Diggs, WR6

I owned zero shares of Stefon Diggs in 2020. I thought to myself, “new system, inaccurate quarterback, uncertain volume, fifth round ADP, no way I’m touching him”. Boy, was I wrong. Instead, Diggs posted career highs in Targets, Receptions, Yards, and Catch% - might I add that each of these records blew his previous career highs out of the water. Now the 6th year vet will require a 2nd or 3rd round investment in 2021, and his QB will be the third or fourth signal caller off the board as well. It’ll be fun to see how Diggs and Allen can build upon their already strong rapport following a full offseason and training camp.

2.07 Calvin Ridley, WR7

Calvin Ridley exploded onto the scene in September, and remained dominant from start to finish. One goose egg and a foot injury may have left a bad taste in owner’s mouths, but this cat was incredible throughout. And remember, he put up WR1 numbers with and without Julio Jones alongside him. So don’t let the “he can’t handle top corners” argument deter you from drafting this stud as a WR1 in 2021. Of course, if Matt Ryan skips town, then we’ll have to revisit Ridley’s ADP.

2.08 Keenan Allen, WR8

I’m of the belief that Keenan Allen is the top possession receiver in the game of football. He was elite with Philip Rivers, and now he’s a blue chip fantasy wideout with Justin Herbert at the helm. Obviously his value takes a serious hit in non-PPR formats given his pedestrian aDOT, but Keenan would’ve drawn awfully close to the league-lead in Targets and Receptions had it not been for a late season ankle injury that forced him to miss 3 games. The market share is just plain silly, he’s creative after the catch, and his premier route-running ability makes it hard for defenses to scheme against him. I’m a big Keenan guy.

2.09 A.J. Brown, WR9

Size, physicality, big play upside. He’s the full package, and he’s not even 24. Corey Davis had one hell of a season - his best yet - and he’s likely to cash in here in a few months. Which means there’s a strong chance Brown will have the opportunity to exorb a larger target share in 2021. The Tennessee offense will always be Derrick Henry first, and A.J. Brown second. But that shouldn’t deter you from drafting Brown as a safe WR1.

2.10 Antonio Gibson, RB12

The Washington Football Team might not offer a ton of sex appeal on Sunday, but from a fantasy perspective it’s refreshing knowing that two guys are always going to get theirs; Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. Gibson was TD-reliant early on, but he really found his stride in the second half. Unfortunately, turf toe derailed that momentum with a 2.5 game absence following his Thanksgiving Day explosion. Gibson recorded just 150 carries to go along with 35 receptions, so I’d love to see what the young buck can do with a heavier workload. Of course, the Memphis product’s 2021 outlook will depend heavily on what HC Ron Rivera opts to do at the QB position.

2.11 Michael Thomas, WR10

If you’re drafting out of the 1.02 slot, and you have the balls to pass on Michael Thomas with this pick, then hats off to you my friend. Remember what I said earlier about recency bias? Do y’all remember how unfair ‘Can’t Guard Mike’ was in 2019?  149 catches (NFL record), for 1725 yards and 9 TDs.  That equated to the 6th highest scoring fantasy season by a WR of all time. Yes, 2020 was weird. The ankle injury, the team suspension, the hamstring injury. But he’s still in the prime of his career, and I refuse to believe a WR1 finish isn’t the cards in 2021. Drew Brees or no Drew Brees, he’s the top wideout in New Orleans and clearly one of the best in the NFL. If I haven’t made myself clear, Mike is my favorite bounceback candidate in 2021.

2.12 George Kittle, TE2

Call me biased, but The People’s Tight End is the best in the game. How quick we are to forget that just two seasons ago, Kittle set a TE record for receiving yardage (Travis Kelce broke that record in 2020). Unfortunately the Iowa-product has a bit of a knack for injury, but his health struggles in 2020 may just provide you with a nice draft discount. I hoped the TE landscape would be more fruitful in 2020, but that just wasn’t the case. So owning Kittle, Kelce, or Waller in 2021 immediately gives you a killer advantage. Pairing up Dalvin Cook and George Kittle also sounds like a damn good time.

Other 2nd Round Considerations:

• Ezekiel Elliot

• Miles Sanders

• D’Andre Swift