Power Rankings: Week 8

Is it too early to start looking at playoff probabilities? F*ck it, who cares? They’re fun to stress over.

The wonderful people over at Reddit plugged me with a spreadsheet that calculates each team’s probability of making the playoffs. It’s not a perfect system, as it operates under the assumption that each team has a fair and even 50% chance of victory each week (even though that may not truly be the case). But still, hopefully this will calm the nerves of those still in the hunt, or light a fire under your ass to get things going. If you’re wondering why teams with the same record have different playoff probabilities, the spreadsheet takes ROS schedule into account.

I’ll preface this week’s power ranking structure by saying that ranks #2 through #4 are nearly indistinguishable at this point. In fact, the top four teams are separated by 37.9 points scored. RyRy has a comfortable lead at the top, and the gap below the top four only seems to widen as the season goes along.

1. Moore Crow-Bell (8-0)

   Last Week: 1st

   Playoff Odds: 100%

   If my memory serves me correctly, we’ve yet to see a team reach the 9-0 mark. Take Mahomes Country Roads got close in 2018, but fell just short. The team’s WRs continue to skyrocket, even Corey Davis is nearing must-start status. Surprisingly, the only real bummer on the team right now is Ezekiel Elliot, who's been pretty abysmal lately in a deplorable offensive attack led by Gucci DiNucci. There’s still ample time to get back on track though.

2. Still T.O.M. (6-2)

   Last Week: 3rd

   Playoff Odds: 99.2%

   It was a forgetful week plagued by some tough BYE’s, but the WR gang stepped up and carried the team to victory. With Kenny Golladay seemingly sidelined for the immediate future, we’ll see if Marvin Jones has enough gas in him to return WR2 numbers. Though much won’t be asked of him, as the rest of the team carries more than enough firepower to rack up W’s. The wideouts are rock solid, but the three-headed monster of JRob, JC, and CMC is especially intimidating.

3. A Stainers (5-3)

   Last Week: 4th

   Playoff Odds: 91.9%

   For a second there, it was looking like Stain was in line for another MNF heartbreak. Crisis averted though, as Gronk picked up another TD en route to an impressive 165 point team win. I feel like I say the same thing every week, but the Mahomes-Kamara-Adams trio is truly the best in the league. Not even close. Then when you consider the recent brilliance of Travis Fulgham, Sterling Shephard, and Brandon Aiyuk - it’s looking more and more likely that this roster is ready for a championship push.

4. Hammered Uncle Hanks (5-3)

   Last Week: 2nd

   Playoff Odds: 92.8%

   Tough week, especially when you consider that 154.9 points would’ve handily beat every other team in the league. But there’s no reason for panic, as a first round BYE is still very much in reach. The wideouts are stellar, and Dalvin Cook is okay at football, and Justin Jackson looks like a fine start in the RB2 slot. The loss of Kittle realllllly stings, as that production likely can’t be replicated. But the team still has plenty of juice in the tank.

5. Lord Beer Me Strength (4-4)

   Last Week: 8th

   Playoff Odds: 54.6%

   Welcome back to relevancy! Actually, welcome back to championship contention! It wasn’t what I’d call a resounding victory, but a dub is a dub. After winning three straight, the team is 4-4 with plenty of reason for optimism. The RBs are serviceable, but the WRs are truly elite. Only problem is - all four are at risk of missing Week 9 due to BYE’s and/or injuries. At full strength though, this is no longer a roster that we can afford to overlook.

6. Brees In The Trap (3-5)

   Last Week: 5th

   Playoff Odds: 18.9%

   What’s the stinky smell? Don’t fret, it’s just the Cowboys vs. Eagles SNF matchup. The whole roster struggled this week, but Amari Cooper and Carson Wentz were especially tough to watch. Calvin Ridley got dinged up, and allegedly so did Jonathan Taylor whose workload took a massive step back against the Lions. With any luck, JK Dobbins will demand more touches in the Baltimore backfield and the big name wideouts will bounce back in a big way. Mixon’s BYE comes at an inopportune time, as a Week 9 loss to the Hammered Uncle Hanks would be detrimental to a playoff push.

7. Z-Unit (4-4)

   Last Week: 9th

   Playoff Odds: 44.9%

   Alright. We actually need to acknowledge how great this team is given the absurdity of early season injuries. As a reminder, both Saquon and Courtland Sutton were lost for the season after Week 2. Now when you look at the team, sure there are plenty of question marks, but one could argue the RBs are amongst the best in the league right now. Carson is a bonafide RB1 (when healthy), Gaskin has been a pleasantly surprising RB2, and Chase Edmonds offers RB1 upside with Kenyan Drake out. Up next is a monumental matchup with another 4-4 opponent, so there are major playoff implications on the line.

8. John Brown (4-4)

   Last Week: 7th

   Playoff Odds: 63.0%

   You live and die by Tyler Lockett. Frankly the whole roster is chock-full of similar boom or bust plays. Mike Evans has always been that way, Swift is an exciting wild card, and I guess calling Nelson Agholor a boom or bust fantasy asset is a nice way of describing his fantasy value. Beyond Evans and Lockett, the team needs serious WR help, but it’s not like the team is deeper at RB either. The team can’t afford to sustain any more injuries, because the bench is a fantasy cemetery.

9. #1 Team in all of HMB (3-5)

   Last Week: #6

   Playoff Odds: 12.6%

   We’re likely just a few weeks away from the highly anticipated returns of Miles Sanders and Nick Chubb. Together, they’ll be a thrilling duo. Around that same time we should also expect good ole Tony Brown to suit up again. Those three hold the key to the team’s success. Diontae Johnson and Darius Slayton are fantastic supplemental pieces, but the Sanders-Chubb-Brown trio will dictate how far this team goes. Before they can return to the field though, the rest of the guys need to come through in Week 9 and take down the league’s last remaining undefeated opponent.

10. The Steamers (2-6)

    Last Week: 11th

    Playoff Odds: 10.0%

    The fat lady ain’t singin’ yet! There are some tough matchups coming up against Still T.O.M. and the Hammered Hanks, but at the same time….winter is coming. Which can only mean one thing, Derrick Henry is about to embark on another out-of-this-world surge to finish the season. He does it every year. Tyreek Hill and Mr. Discount DoubleCheck need to keep doing their thing too, especially with Kareem Hunt on BYE in Week 9. There’s only one thing left to do; win out!

11. Terra Nova Tigers (2-6)

    Last Week: 10th

    Playoff Odds: 2.5%

    Could this finally be the week ‘Can’t Start Mike’ suits up again? Even if he does, it might be too late. Winning out would almost certainly put TNT in the playoff conversation, but that’s a tall order considering the team isn’t anywhere near healthy, and the A Stainers are on deck. With Tyler Boyd also on BYE, the sun might be setting here pretty soon. Prove me wrong!

12. Peter’s Team (2-6)

    Last Week: 12th

    Playoff Odds: 7.2%

    Hey, a win is a win. Even if you only manage to score 79 points. Josh Jacobs was finally able to get things going on the ground, and it looks like Aaron Jones has a half decent shot on returning to the field Thursday. Fingers crossed. With no BYEs, and limited injuries, the roster is in it’s best possible shape to continue its run towards the promised land. You’ve got one win down, five more to go!