Power Rankings: Week 11

This is shaping up to be one hell of a finish. Four teams are battling for the two first round BYE’s, four (technically five) teams are battling for the last two playoff spots. and the last four squads sit at 3-8 in a race to avoid last place.

I opted to not include the First Round BYE Odds in this week’s edition because it was super misleading. The algorithm I use to calculate playoff odds takes into account the ‘Projected Final Ranking for Total Points’, which accounts for tiebreakers in the event two teams end with the same record. So yes, while I technically have the tiebreaker over Ryan and Henry, there’s no way I’ve locked up a first round BYE like the spreadsheet says. The race for Most Points Scored is verrrryy tight, so Ryan, Hen, Stain, and myself are all still very much in play for a first round BYE.

At the other end of the league, three teams have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. That 0.2% Chance has become a 0.0% Chance, Brees In The E.R. has become Brees In The Grave, and the Terra Nova Tigers have been declawed. Somehow, someway, The Steamers are holding on by a thread.

2 WEEKS TO GO.

2 OPEN PLAYOFF SPOTS.

F*CK KICKERS.

1. Moore Crow-Bell (9-2)

   Last Week: 1st

   Playoff Odds: 100%

   That’s right, you’re keeping the top spot. Taysom Hill has already lost his TE-eligibility, and a Julio Jones hamstring was the only other factor that led to a second consecutive defeat.  Future success hinges upon Julio’s health, but Zeke’s return to dominance was a sight for sore eyes. Meanwhile, DJ Moore and AJ Brown have been divine lately, minus a few mulligans. The gang is not without concern though, as the TE and FLEX spots really need to get things going come playoff time. The line between 1st and 2nd/3rd/4th has never been thinner.

2. Still T.O.M. (9-2)

   Last Week: 2nd

   Playoff Odds: 100%

   I’m not going to apologize on behalf of ESPN’s decision to maintain Taysom Hill’s TE-eligibility. Y’all would’ve done the same thing - butchya gotta be quicker than that! Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp might not offer a ton of one-play upside, but god damn they catch a lot of passes. The RB’s continue carrying their weight, but all eyes are on Christian McCaffrey’s shredded, perfectly toned, muscular, and sprained, shoulder. With a Week 13 BYE coming up, a healthy CMC come playoff time would be dreamy!!!

3. Hammered Uncle Hanks (8-3)

   Last Week: 3rd

   Playoff Odds: 100%

   This team is so good. I’ll say it again. As much as I wish George Kittle was on the field, his injury really levels the playing field for us. Otherwise, Hank might be running away with this thing. The DK, Nuk, and Claypool trio is so unfair. So is Dalvin Cook. And have you guys been watching Chargers games at all? Herby can BALL (Sco Ducks). The Hanks bench is pretty shallow at the moment, but that won’t matter as long as the team stays healthy. A playoff spot is sealed up, but the path to a first round BYE is an uphill climb with Still T.O.M. and Moore Crow-Bell remaining on the schedule.

4. A Stainers (7-4)

   Last Week: 4th

   Playoff Odds: 100%

   Z really got into the spirit of things last week by forgoing his RB1 slot, thus gifting Stain a much needed W. It wasn’t a team performance that warranted victory, but for a roster that has two losses by a combined 1.14 points - it feels somewhat fair. It’s been a strong season for the A Stainers, one filled with championship aspirations. But with only two games remaining and a two game deficit in the standings, they’re more than likely going to be without the luxury of a first round BYE. The WR2 and WR3 slots have been a little underwhelming lately, and Ronald Jones has been more unpredictable than a bouncy ball on gravelly road. With the way things are trending, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on the A Stainers’ Big 3 down the stretch.

5. Lord Beer Me Strength (6-5)

   Last Week: 5th

   Playoff Odds: 64.1%

   Biggest win of the year, hands down. At 5-6, you’re staring down the barrel of a gun with no room for error. But at 6-5, you’re in the driver’s seat, baby. It’s an especially huge victory for a team that’s still waiting on David Montgomery and Kenny Golladay to get healthy. Travis Kelce, Robert Woods, and Josh Allen have really been putting the team on their backs lately. There is some bunk news though; Joe Burrow’s ACL injury deals a tough blow to both Tee Higgins and Giovani Bernard. There’s just no way that Bengals offense will remain the same. But let’s not dwell on the negative - one more dub and you’re in the playoffs!

6. Peter’s Team (5-6)

   Last Week: 6th

   Playoff Odds: 61.4%

   Alright, knock it off. I’m serious. Your little 4 game win streak and playoff surge is awfully cute. But it stops now. Why? Because I don’t want you in the playoffs. None of us do. In all seriousness, this is a damn good team that shouldn’t be overlooked as a championship contender. Deshaun is Deshaun, the wideouts offer undeniable upside, the RB duo is terrifying, and even the TE is great (though also inconsistent). With Rex Burkhead’s season on ice, could James White could emerge as a fantasy difference maker down the stretch? It’s certainly possible. I’ve reached the point where I’m actively rooting against Bacich, and y’all should do the same. After a 1-6 start - this guy made it out of the gulag, self-revived, and now he’s coming for our wallets.

7. John Brown (5-6)

   Last Week: 8th

   Playoff Odds: 48.9%

   I hate to say it, but Austin is right. That was karma for your previous lack of attention to detail. The good news is that it wasn't a knockout punch. The A Stainers present a difficult Week 12 matchup, but a healthy lineup can get this done. CEH, D’Andre Swift, and (fingers crossed) Austin Ekeler would make for a nasty RB trio, with Tyler Lockett and Mike Evans serving as an killer one-two punch on the outside. That guy Darren Waller is aight too. This has been an underachieving squad from the get-go, but it’s not too late to turn things around and make a run for glory.

8. Z-Unit (5-6)

   Last Week: 7th

   Playoff Odds: 23.4%

   Oh boy - you hanging in there? If you need emotional support, you know who to call. That Carson/Hyde mishap has to sting like a motherf*cker. With the squad buried in total points scored, the tiebreaker isn’t going to be in Z’s favor. That’s why winning out is imperative now, then let the cards fall where they may. But beyond Carson, Terry McLaurin, and Brandin Cooks - this lineup just doesn’t offer the steady fantasy contributors necessary to make a championship run. Just like October Baseball though, you never know what can unfold in the postseason.

9. The Steamers (3-8)

   Last Week: 11th

   Playoff Odds: 1.7%

   WOOOOOOOOOAHHH - WE’RE HALFWAY THERE. WOOOAHHHHH - LIVING ON A PRAYER!! There’s still a chance! Alright, it’s a long shot. But guess who’s 4th in the league in scoring, and just 55.42 points off from the league lead? Jumping three teams in two weeks is a tall order, but goddamn that would be an epic story. I’m here for it.

10. 0.2% Chance (3-8)

    Last Week: 9th

    Playoff Odds: 0%

    You were right about AB. You were right to buy into Miles Sanders and Nick Chubb. You were right to trade for Diontae Johnson. The timing just didn’t work out.

11. Brees In The E.R. (3-8)

    Last Week: 10th

    Playoff Odds: 0%

    Jonathan Taylor is such a tease, and Joe Mixon’s foot injury was a roundhouse heel kick to the upper inner thigh area. This is a team that was robbed of it’s true potential because of injury.

12. Terra Nova Tigers (3-8)

    Last Week: 12th

    Playoff Odds: 0%

    Hey, look! Welcome back, Michael Thomas! Right on time! All it took was an unprecedented change at QB. For the third consecutive season, Kyle’s fantasy prospects have been curb-stomped by bad luck.