Regular Season Wrap-Up
With the Regular Season in the rear view mirror, there isn’t much of a need for Weekly Power Rankings. 4 teams are still in, fighting for the grand prize and everlasting glory. While the other 10 gear up for ‘Basketball Season’. By the way - don’t kid yourself. We all know it’s going to come down to the Lakers, Nuggets, Bucks, and Nets. You heard it hear first.
Anyway, for this week I figured I’d do somethin’ a little different for y’all. I’d argue that fantasy football success comes down to “10% luck, 20% skill, and 15% concentrated power of will...”. Just kidding - it’s 40% Draft, 30% Mid-Season Transactions, and 30% Luck. You can’t control injuries and opponent scoring, so luck is a hugely significant factor, as is good decision-making at the trade table and on the waiver wire. But if you don’t draft well - you don’t stand much of a chance. So let’s rewind the clock to draft night, and revisit the decisions we made at the podium. Remember, hindsight is always 20/20.
But first, let’s check out some season themes worth noting, and a few more bootleg memes.
The Steamers redefined what it means to have ‘Bad Luck’
Not only did Brad come up just 1.26 points shy of capturing the prize for ‘Most Points Scored’, but The Steamers finished with the 3rd highest scoring season of all time in the history of our league, AND STILL finished at 4-9. How is it possible to average 128.9 PPG and miss the playoffs? You’ve been wronged and 2021 will be nicer.
Still T.O.M. redefined what it means to have ‘Good Luck’
Even if we disregard the team’s overall good health, a few things went down this season that I can only classify as divine intervention. I swear it’s not my intention to make you mad...I’ll just list them out for you…
Week 7:
FINAL SCORE: 153.7 - 153.0 (W)
Rams D/ST sacks QB Nick Foles on the Bears’ last offensive play of the game on MNF. That one point swing on the last play of an entire weekend of football ended up being the difference in the game.
Week 10:
FINAL SCORE: 122.5 - 119.64 (W)
The Hail Murray and Nick Chubb’s decision to ice the game instead of score a TD, ended up being the difference in another close game.
Week 13:
In a last minute push for the Most Points Scored, Brad is deprived of Tyreek Hill’s 40 yard TD because Andy Reid didn’t challenge the call on the field. That alone would have flipped the outcome for Most Points Scored.
Even with all that luck, Still T.O.M. still needs a lot to go their way in order to defeat the A Stainers and then Moore Crow-Bell / Hammered Uncle Hanks in consecutive weeks in order to hoist the Cougar Pride Plaque once again.
Two Comeback Kids
Lord Beer Me Strength ended up with the five seed after a 1-4 start, and Peter’s Team came all the way back from 1-6 to qualify for the six seed! Bacich was given just a 7.2% chance of making the playoffs after Week 8. Unfortunately - both teams were eliminated in the quarterfinals. But hey! Hats off to both you boys!
Hammered Hanks
Best Draft Pick: DK Metcalf (Round 5, Pick 5)
WR3
When you draft arguably the most physically-dominant receiver in the NFL outside the top fifty draft picks, good things tend to happen.
Worst Draft Pick: Jordan Howard (Round 8, Pick 8)
RB81
This selection wasn’t even close to being a death sentence, but it stings knowing Ronald Jones (RB10) went the very next pick.
Moore Crow-Bell
Best Draft Pick: Antonio Gibson (Round 6, Pick 10)
RB8
Eureka! 6th round gold! Hopefully Tony’s toe issue isn’t one that sidelines him for the remainder of the season, which would severely impact Ryan’s championship hopes.
Worst Draft Pick: Le’Veon Bell (Round 5, Pick 3)
RB66
With Le’Veon falling to the 5th round, you can’t be upset about the selection here. It looked like a solid pick at the time. He’s just not the volume king he once was.
Still T.O.M.
Best Draft Pick: James Robinson (Round 16, Pick 12)
RB4
Currently one of three tailbacks with more than 1,000 yards rushing. The other two? Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. JRob was the top find this year’s draft.
Worst Draft Pick: DJ Chark (Round 5, Pick 1)
WR41
Chark has shown some flashes, but hasn’t followed up on his rookie campaign the way many had hoped. DK Metcalfe, Stefon Diggs, or Tyler Boyd would’ve been much more fruitful.
The Steamers
Best Draft Pick: Tyreek Hill (Round 2, Pick 7)
WR1
Cheetah was the third receiver off the board, but he’s outpaced even the loftiest of expectations. 16 TDs will do that for a guy.
Worst Draft Pick: Kerryon Johnson (Round 7, Pick 6)
RB57
Swing and a miss. The Lions were far more keen on gifting the rock to rookie D’Andre Swift and veteran Adrian Peterson.
A Stainers
Best Draft Pick: Davante Adams (Round 2, Pick 9)
WR2
He’s been borderline unfair. Both he (and Tyreek Hill) have outpaced the 2019 Michael Thomas to this point.
Worst Draft Pick: Zach Ertz (Round 4, Pick 5)
TE35
The injury certainly came in to play here - but even at full health, Ertz’s peak of 2020 fantasy relevance came on draft night. Just a weird situation in Philly.
Terra Nova Tigers
Best Draft Pick: Adam Thielen (Round 3, Pick 7):
WR10
How might Thielen perform with Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo? Turns out, he’s just fine. Aging like fine wine.
Worst Draft Pick: Michael Thomas (Round 1, Pick 7)
WR86
First the high ankle sprain. Then the team suspension. Then the hamstring injury. Since returning to the field, he’s topped 15 just once. I for one can’t wait to see where his ADP falls next season.
Brees In The Trap
Best Draft Pick: Calvin Ridley (Round 3, Pick 11)
WR7
The third year pro got off to a BANGER of a start, but his return to reality has still warranted low-end WR1 / high-end WR2 acclaim. Ridley will be a fantasy stud for years to come.
Worst Draft Pick: Mark Ingram (Round 6, Pick 2)
RB67
I too was tricked by the former Heisman winner. We all expected JK Dobbins to steal some action, but I don’t think anyone saw this level of inadequacy coming.
0.2% Chance
Best Draft Pick: Yikes
I don’t want to rub salt in the wounds, but this was a realllllllllly tough draft. Trades have altered the roster construction, but just look at the first few rounds: Miles Sanders (RB21), Chris Godwin (WR44), Cooper Kupp (WR23), Leonard Fournette (RB46), David Montgomery (RB9), and AJ Green (WR71). Sometimes you gamble and get burned.
Worst Draft Pick: Leonard Fournette (Round 4, Pick 4)
RB46
Bigggggg reach right here. But you already knew that.
Christian Kirk
Best Draft Pick: Darren Waller (Round 5, Pick 8)
TE2
He’s no Travis Kelce, but you can count the number of reliable fantasy TE’s on Jason Pierre-Paul’s right hand. Waller has looked absolutely dominant at times this season, and his ADP will likely creep up into the 3rd or 4th round next season.
Worst Draft Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Round 1, Pick 8)
RB
There’s always an inherent risk in drafting an unproven rookie with your first round pick. I admire the aggression, but the CEH experiment ended up being more of an RB2. That’s one Chetty would like to have back.
Z-Unit
Best Draft Pick: Terry McLaurin (Round 4, Pick 11)
WR17
YAC monster, and emerging star. His 2021 ADP ought to float into the early 4th or mid 3rd, so this was a nice steal. Damn you though, I was targeting him with the next pick.
Worst Draft Pick: Devin Singletary (Round 6, Pick 11)
RB31
Double digit touches almost every game, but double digit fantasy points just once. It’s hard to call Singletary a bust, but he certainly didn’t help anyone win games in 2019.
Lord Beer Me Strength
Best Draft Pick: Travis Kelce (Round 2, Pick 1)
TE1
Goddamn! Is he really going to lead the league in receiving yards? I remember thinking this was a reach, but wowee was I wrong.
Worst Draft Pick: Henry Ruggs (Round 8, Pick 1) - Traded to 0.2% Chance
WR79
Am I the only one who feels like the Raiders are misusing their 1st round pick? I mean c’mon, the guy was the first WR off the board, yet he’s averaging just 3.5 targets per game. The aDOT is elite, but the usage just hasn’t been there.
Peter’s Team
Best Draft Pick: Will Fuller (Round 7, Pick 10)
WR15
Prior to the suspension, Fuller was a bonafide WR1 with DeAndre Hopkins out of town. Hell of a find considering most of us considered him as nothing more than a WR3 with upside.
Worst Draft Pick: Patriots D/ST (Round 10, Pick 3)
D/ST9
Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung both opted out prior to Week 1. But that’s besides the point - this was the first D/ST off the board, and it was a bit of a reach.
