Fantasy Draft Strategies
It’s the third round of the draft, and you’re up again in four selections. So far, you’re feeling pretty good! You got who were targeting in round one, and a guy you were relatively high on fell to you in round two. Right on! For your third round pick, you have Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson queued up. Surely, one of them will fall to you.
There goes Cooper Kupp. Three picks away.
Damn, there goes Keenan Allen. No problem, there’s no way the next guy selects...
F*ck. There goes Allen Robinson. You’re on the clock.
I’m sure you all know the feeling right? If you’re like me (which I assume you are being that you’re reading this in mid-June), you want to be as prepared as possible for situations like these. Because as you know, there’s nothing worse than drafting on impulse, then looking back on it afterwards and saying “Sony Michel? Really? What were you thinking?” You can run mock drafts all off-season, but each draft board is going to be unique - so it’s best to start with a plan of action. A strategy. Something to help keep you on course, in an effort to construct the best roster possible. Let’s review a few draft ideologies that you may want to consider this year.
ZeroRB
ZeroRB isn’t for the faint of heart. With this strategy, you’ll completely bypass the running back position throughout the early portion of the draft. Why? Because tailbacks are far more susceptible to injury than other players. Having spent your early rounds compiling a premier corps of WR’s and TE’s, you’ll then shift your focus towards the running back position in the middle and back half of the draft. ZeroRB is a proven model - but you can’t expect your roster to be finalized in August. It’s equally important that you leverage in-season acquisitions whether it be through trade or on the waiver wire, as RB attrition inevitably takes place. Like I said, this method isn't for the faint of heart. It’s scary to finish draft night with what may seem like a gaping hole in the middle of your roster. The ZeroRB approach is effective, but it may only make sense if you’re assigned a later draft position. If you’re in the 1.1 slot, let’s not pass on Christian McCaffrey. Yeah?
One Premier RB
For those who seek the comfort of starting a bona fide RB1 each and every week, I highly recommend that you turn your attention to the One Premier RB approach. It’s virtually the same as ZeroRB, with the only differentiator being that you invest in a premier tailback with your first round pick, before reverting back to ZeroRB approach. As you may have guessed, this technique works best with a top 3 or 4 pick. That way, you know for certain that an elite running back will be available when you’re on the clock.
Heavy RB
For a long time, fantasy football was dominated by the running back position. But I have news for you, the NFL is a passing league now, and has been some time. The nearly-universal embracement of the aerial offense has catapulted the value of pass-catchers alike, most notably in PPR formats. The running back position is far from dead, but I’m here to tell you that drafting three tailbacks in your first four rounds may not be in your best interest. Why? Because as previously mentioned, running backs are far more susceptible to injury. Secondly, once you reach a certain threshold - right around the RB14/WR14 spot - wide receivers become unequivocally more valuable than running backs. Have a look at the breakdown below.
I took the top thirty fantasy scorers at the WR and RB positions over the past four seasons (‘16-’19), calculated the mean, and analyzed the difference between the two. What you’ll find is pretty enlightening. As you might expect, top notch RB’s are far more productive than their WR counterparts. But, as you work down the list, WR’s start becoming noticeably more valuable. For example, you’ll find that on average since the 2016 season, WR30 is worth 20.2 points more than RB30. An overabundance of tailbacks may be comforting because their volume is more projectionable, but recent history tells us that you’d actually be better off investing more heavily in your wideouts, or at least finding a balance between the two.
Early TE
Here we have an employable, yet somewhat polarizing ideology. It’s self explanatory - this approach advocates that you should aim for a premier TE within your first three or four rounds of the draft. It’s no secret how frustrating the TE position has become. In recent years, the position group has been sucking on fumes from a fantasy perspective. You had Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Travis Kelce - and that was pretty much it. But in 2019, there was actually quite a bit of parody compared to recent seasons. 2019 brought the emergence of players like Darren Waller and Mark Andrews - both of whom may have been early waiver wire adds in your league. We also saw Austin Hooper dominate as TE1 before a minor knee injury sidelined him for a few weeks. Hell, even Tyler Higbee became a hot name in the second half. Last season didn’t offer the same record-smashing campaigns that 2018 had, but we saw TE5 through TE12 finish with notably more points scored. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Early TE approach - but with a healthy Evan Engram, a healthy Hunter Henry, and the potential breakout of young studs like Chris Herndon, Mike Gesicki, and Noah Fant in 2020 - I can see why you may want to defer and focus on late-round finds. But can you really blame the guy who drafts Travis Kelce in Round 3? Absolutely not.
The Value QB
In recent years, I might have argued this was the only way to go. Why burn your fourth or fifth round pick on a big name quarterback when you could find just as much value later on? But now, guys like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are complicating things. Lamar Jackson was 72.8 points better than the next best guy in 2019, and Patrick Mahomes was 63 points better than the QB2 in 2018. By the way, those are the two highest scoring fantasy seasons ever recorded by a QB. Those numbers are pretty hard to ignore. You won’t find me drafting Lamar in the second round next year, but I can’t fault the guy who does. Afterall, it’s fun when the most dynamic and electric signal callers in the league are on your squad. And conversely, it sucks to play against them.
Late Round K & D/ST
This isn’t necessarily what I’d call a ‘draft strategy’, but it’s something we all need to accept as the truth. Don’t waste your time selecting defenses or kickers any earlier than the last two or three rounds of your draft. More often than not, defenses are matchup-dependent and they tend to be unpredictable year to year. Remember how dominant the Bears D/ST was in 2018? Yeah? They finished as D/ST20 last season. How about the glorious days of ‘Sacksonville’ led by Jalen Ramsey and Calais Campbell in 2017? D/ST1 in 2017, then D/ST15 in 2018. It works in both ways too. Just look at San Francisco. After finishing as D/ST31 in 2018, they were D/ST3 in 2019. NFL defenses have proven to be wildly unpredictable year over year from a fantasy perspective, so don’t drop a valuable mid-round pick on a lottery ticket. Worst comes to worst, you can always stream the position.
Don’t get me started on kickers. Banish them from your league! I refuse to believe that a 4 Rec 100 Yd game from a wide receiver should equate to a kicker who booted a couple 40 yard field goals and an extra point or two.
