Mock Draft: 4 Round Review
Players are reporting for training camp, position battles are underway, and I’m anxiously awaiting for the arrival of HBO’s Hard Knocks. That can only mean one thing, it’s Mock Draft Season. Of course, if you’re like me it started two months ago. But that’s beside the point.
With NFL Football tentatively scheduled to begin in a matter of weeks, it’s time for fantasy owners to start getting familiar with their draft board. Who’re you targeting in the first? Who are you avoiding? Who’s ADP is providing strong value right now? These are all questions you want to have answered prior to draft night. Every draft board is unique - but mock drafting is the best way to understand where players are falling, and it gives you the opportunity to develop a strategy before your picks actually start counting.
To celebrate the arrival of Mock Draft Season, I ran a four round draft simulation for a 12-team 0.5 PPR redraft league and put together a list of 10 immediate takeaways. Before we get started, please note the following…
If you’re not using Sleeper.app for your mock drafts, then you’re doing it wrong
And for my hometown league; this simulation was 100% automated, so don’t get any ideas. If you thought I was going to uncover my plan of attack, then y’all are straight foolish.
Christian McCaffrey at 1.01
CMC has established himself as a fantasy deity, and is the consensus number one overall pick. McCaffrey is coming off a truly historic season. He became just the 3rd player all-time to record 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in the same season (Roger Craig in 1980, Marshall Faulk in 1999). He also broke the single season tailback reception record along the way (116). Let me put his dominance into perspective for you. Aaron Jones, who had a tremendous 2019 campaign of his own, finished as RB2 with 290.3 points. McCaffrey finished as RB1 with 412.3 points, exactly 122 more points than Jones. If McCaffrey failed to score a single one of his 19 touchdowns in 2019, he’d still finish ahead of Jones. Let’s not stop there. CMC’s receiving stats alone would have made him WR21 on the season - better than the likes of Stefon Diggs, Tyler Bord, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Sure, the Carolina offense is set to undergo some changes with Matt Rhule at the helm and Teddy Bridgewater under center, but the playbook is sure to be centered around #22. CMC is durable, he’s match up-proof, he’s game-script proof - he’s simply the best player in fantasy football. Don’t overthink this one.
Davante Adams is the easy WR2
Coming off a funky 2019 season, Davante Adams is primed for a bounceback campaign. He starred in just 12 games for the Packers, but still picked up 83 Rec for 997 Yds and 5 tugs. He’s a strong candidate for positive touchdown regression having scored 10+ TDs in three consecutive seasons prior to 2019. We can’t forget, HC Matt Lafleur did absolutely nothing to make Aaron Rodgers’ life easier this offseason - which means Davante is going to be a target monster yet again. Who else is Aaron Rodgers throwing too? Allen Lazard? MVS? Jake Kumerow? Devon Funchess just opted out of the 2020 season. The way I see it, Rodgers will have no choice but to look Adam’s way 9-12 times a game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s ADP is skyrocketing, and rightfully so?
The Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Damien Williams debate had been a frequent talking point within the fantasy community up until last week. Now that Williams has opted to sit out the 2020 season, CEH’s stock is climbing - and climbing fast. The rookie’s dynamic skillset in both the passing and running game could be a scary combination in the Chief’s fantasy-friendy offense, and now he seems like a lock for 200+ touches. The only other tailbacks on KC’s roster are DeAndre Washington, Darrel Williams, and Darwin Thompson. Williams and Thompson combined for 78 carries with the Chiefs in 2019, while Washington toted the rock 108 times in Oakland. Even with an unproven supporting cast, we can’t expect Edwards-Helaire to own 100% of the workload. He recorded a hefty 270 touches in his junior season, and a stinted offseason will only steepen the rookie learning curve. But still, any tailback with the potential to own 70-80% of the touches in KC’s backfield is worthy of a 2nd/3rd round pick. The question is, how high are you willing to take him?
Lamar and Pat, Round 2 Value?
I’m a huge believer in the Value QB philosophy, so I struggle with leaning on Mahomes or Jackson as early as Round 2. Of course, if any QB warranted being drafted that high, it’d be these two. Mahomes and Jackson own the two highest scoring fantasy seasons of all time, and there’s no reason to believe they can’t replicate that same production in 2020. Lamar’s elite rushing ability provides a safe floor and also what could be the highest ceiling in all of fantasy football. And we all know what Mahomes is capable of given his ridiculous arm talent and strong supporting cast. They’re the most electric signal callers on the planet, and I can’t blame you if you’re willing to pay the price to have them on your team.
Questionable 3rd Tier RBs
Once names like James Conner and Austin Ekeler start falling off the board, you start entering the Tier 3 RB territory. Tailbacks like Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, and Chris Carson offer no shortage of talent - but they come with plenty of risk.
Melvin Gordon will assume lead duties in Denver in an emerging offense, but he’s never been a posterboy for efficiency - and now he’ll be battling for touches with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Chris Carson is moving in the right direction while recovering from a broken hip, but the Seahawks also enlisted Carlos Hyde who’s coming off a magnificent season in Houston. Carson’s ball security concerns are well documented, and Hyde’s presence worries me much more than Rashad Penny did last season. In the city where the playa’s play, Todd Gurley is lined up for 225+ touches. But how much do we trust that knee? The same goes for David Johnson and his back. Leonard Fournette is my favorite of the bunch, coming off a healthy 300+ touch season. He’s due for positive touchdown regression, though some of his receiving work will be forfeited to the newly acquired Chris Thompson.
Make no mistake - I wouldn’t discourage you from selecting any of these guys. They’re all supremely talented backs with projectionable workloads. They’re all quality RB2’s, but their risks need to be acknowledged.
Waffle House Value
My West Coast buddies don’t understand the true beauty of Waffle House. The food is cheap, it’s reliable, it’s fire. Julio Jones acquired the namesake from the southern fast food chain because “he’s always open”. Not only does he have the top nickname in all of football, but Julio may just be the very best at what he does. Yet for some reason his ADP is sliding into the early 2nd round. Why? The man has been prolific his entire career. All he’s done is record 1300+ yards and 125+ targets in each season dating back to 2014. After hauling in 99 of 157 targets in 2019, Matt Ryan may be forced to look his way even more often in 2020 when you consider Austin Hooper’s 97 abandoned targets. Julio is a bonafide lock to finish as a top eight WR, and he provides incredible value at the Round 1/2 turn. Put Waffle House in your WR1 spot, and leave him there.
Four Chiefs in the First 2 Rounds
Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Everybody should be wanting a slice of the Chief’s elite offense. All thanks to Patty Mahomes, no one else can put points on the board like KC can. Each of these players is wildly talented, and each of them provide projectionable volume from a workload standpoint. The Kansas City offense is like a blue chip stock from a fantasy perspective; it’s expensive, but at least you can be confident in a positive ROI.
Is Amari Cooper a WR1?
Nope, I don’t think so. He may very well finish as a top twelve WR at season’s end - but as much as I love Coop, he won’t be my WR1. 40% of his points scored last year came in just 3 games. I can’t buy into that level of inconsistency. Not to mention, Michael Gallup is an emerging star, and now we have to throw CeeDee Lamb in the mix. The Cowboys are going to light up scoreboards, but how can we possibly predict who’ll be the top receiver week to week? I’m out on Coop based on his current ADP. He’s a much better NFL WR than Fantasy WR.
Only 1 Rookie in the First 4 Rounds
F*ck COVID-19 for a whole lot of reasons, the least of which being its impact on NFL Football. With no OTAs, no preseason games, and a truncated training camp - the rookie learning curve is going to be steeper than it’s ever been. Rookie RB’s will acclimate the fastest, but it’s reasonable to fade the wildly talented WR class. Understanding a playbook and developing a rapport with your QB doesn’t happen overnight, and now they’re being asked to do so under unprecedented circumstances. Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be the only rookie coming off draft boards until the 5th or 6th round.
James Conner vs. Le’Veon Bell
These two will forever be tied to one another following Bell’s controversial holdout in 2018, when Conner stepped in and delivered an RB6 campaign for those lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire. In this mock, we see them fall consecutively early in the third round. If Le’Veon Bell wasn’t coached by the NFL’s elite jackass in Adam Gase, I’d be buying as many shares as I could. Bell may not be what he once was, but he’s still a talented back who’s no stranger to 300+ touch seasons. The Jets boosted their OL in the offseason, and a mono-less Sam Darnold will boost Bell’s fantasy floor. With that said, Gase brought in the geriatric Frank Gore who he’s familiar with following their 2018 season together in Miami. Bell was highly reliant on volume last season, so I worry about Gase’s reluctance to lean on his $50M tailback and forfeit touches to the aging Gore. UGH.
James Conner was forced to miss six games in 2019 following a pair of knee and shoulder injuries. Now he’ll be relied upon in a near-bellcow role during an all-important contract season. The Pittsburgh offense will almost certainly improve following a dreadful 2019 campaign with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph under center.
Thanks for reading! I’ll do another mock draft analysis for the later rounds in a few weeks!
