Free Agent Fast Takes: RBs

In an era where many NFL GM’s are devaluing the importance of signing an elite tailback, fantasy football is still largely driven by the running back position and it’s ability to contribute on the ground and through the air. We witnessed a lot of turnover this offseason, so let’s take a step back and review these developments and how they’ll impact each player’s fantasy value.

Derrick Henry: Franchised Tagged by Tennessee Titans

With a projected first round ADP, the Titan’s decision to franchise tag Derrick Henry should make fantasy owners uneasy. Because we’ve seen this movie before. The player justifiably wants long-term security, while the front office prefers financial flexibility. If Derrick Henry suits up Week 1, he’s an indisputable top six running back. But until a long term contract is delivered, fantasy owners must acknowledge the possibility of a holdout.

Update: Derrick Henry penned a 4-year contract extension whixh puts the possibility of a holdout to bed. Rookie RB Darrynton Evans remains a valuable handcuff.

Kenyan Drake: Transition Tagged by Arizona Cardinals

It’s a dream come true! Shortly after placing the transition tag on Kenyan Drake, the Arizona Cardinals then committed highway robbery when they swapped RB David Johnson for WR DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans. Not only does it appear that the backfield is Drake’s to lose, but Arizona’s college-style offense with Kyler Murray at the helm is expected to take a big step forward. With what should be a healthy volume of work on the ground and through the air, Drake appears to be a safe RB2 with RB1 upside.

Melvin Gordon: 2-year $16M deal with Denver Broncos

The former Wisconsin Badger gambled on himself last season by holding out on the Los Angeles Chargers, and it didn’t pan out quite the way he hoped. Gordon ended up with less money, but did find intrinsic value in getting the opportunity to play his old team twice a year. From a fantasy perspective, Gordon’s value seems fickle. Only once in his five NFL seasons has he averaged more than 4.0 YPC, and now he’ll split the workload with Philip Lindsay - and maybe even Royce Freeman to some extent. I view Gordon as a low-end RB2, but his true value will be determined by ADP.

Austin Ekeler: 4-year $24.5M deal with Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler was RB2 in Weeks 1-4 prior to Melvin Gordon’s return, and he still managed to finish the season as RB6. Simply put, he was a fantasy superstar in 2019 despite splitting the workload behind Pro Football Focus’s 29th ranked offensive line. The Chargers have since acquired Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner to patch the OL, and now Melvin Gordon is out of the picture. Ekeler’s offensive versatility paired with a lack of competition in the backfield make him an elite fantasy asset in 2020. He falls just short of the first round tier  - but he may provide even greater value to owners who draft him in the second or third round.

Todd Gurley: Released by Los Angeles Rams, 1-year $5.5M deal with Atlanta Falcons

Less than two years ago, TGIII was the highest paid tailback in the NFL - not to mention the golden snitch of fantasy football. After being released by the Rams, he penned a one year deal with the rebranded Atlanta Falcons. Let’s call it a homecoming for the former Georgia ‘Dawg. Needless to say, Gurley’s days as a fantasy cheat code are probably behind him. The status of his knee tendinitis can be downplayed, but let’s not forget the Rams couldn’t find a single trade partner while he was still under contract - which tells us that plenty of well-informed GM’s are skeptical. Gurley is a risky RB2 with upside - the backfield is all his, but you’ll suffer 16 weeks of chronic anxiety every time Gurley checks in as a ‘Limited Participant’ on Atlanta’s personnel report.

David Johnson: Traded to Houston Texans

Even with an RB10 finish in 2018, DJ has largely underwhelmed since his electric 2016 campaign. A broken wrist derailed his momentum in 2017, and last season was plagued by a busted back that forfeited the entire workload to Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. DJ now has to compete for touches with Duke Johnson - but being that Bill O’Brien forfeited the best wide receiver in football to acquire the veteran tailback, that should affirm he’ll be in line for the majority of snaps. Johnson’s volume will constitute RB2 numbers, but he’s certainly a gamble.

Carlos Hyde: 1-year $4M deal with Seattle Seahawks

Well, that complicates things. With Rashaad Penny still recovering from a torn ACL, it was smart for the Seahawks to bring in Carlos Hyde as a relief option. Chris Carson will resume lead back duties, but Hyde’s involvement in the offense won’t be insignificant. First of all, Hyde is a proven veteran coming off a surprisingly strong campaign in Houston, and his resume clearly states that he’s comfortable with a 200+ touch workload. Chris Carson may be more talented, but he’s far from injury-proof and he struggled mightily with ball security early last season. Barring an injury to Carson, Carlos Hyde should find himself in the 125-150 carry range, likely in RB3/4 territory. With that said, he’s an extremely valuable and proven handcuff.

Jordan Howard: 2-year $10M deal with Miami Dolphins

The signing of Jordan Howard didn’t turn many heads, but it’s not an irrelevant move from a fantasy perspective. The Dolphins were abysmal on the ground last season. In fact, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team with 243 rushing yards. Brian Flores will certainly look to improve the Dolphin’s success on the ground next season, and Howard stands to receive a good chunk of that workload. Many projected Miami to to use one of their fourteen 2020 draft picks on a young tailback, but they ended up selecting just one offensive skill-position player after Tua Tagovailoa. Brian Flores made an effort to improve at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which should improve the Dolphin’s rushing attack. Howard should be viewed as an RB3/4 and a low ceiling FLEX play in the right matchup

Matt Breida: Traded to the Miami Dolphins

Rather than drafting a rookie running back, the Dolphins made a Day 3 trade with the 49ers that sent the speedy Matt Breida packing for Miami. Breida and Howard will likely share the workload in South Beach, giving Brain Flores a discount ‘Thunder and Lightning’ duo in the backfield. Howard may be awarded the early down work, though I much prefer Breida’s prospects as a fantasy asset. Injuries derailed what should have been another strong season in San Francisco, but the Georgia Southern product still averaged north of 5.0 YPC for the second consecutive season. He owns the fastest ball carrier speed in the entire NFL over the last two seasons, and in 2019 he ranked 6th in Breakaway Run %. It would be naive to think Kyle Shanahan didn’t have something to do with that, but it still validates Breida’s game breaking ability. Breida is a lower RB3/4 whose fantasy numbers could be improved by increased involvement in Miami’s passing attack.

Devonta Freeman: Unsigned

The 28-year old former fantasy stud is still awaiting a contract opportunity. Until ink meets paper, Freeman should stay off fantasy rosters.