Free Agent Fast Takes: WRs
What a time to be an NFL Quarterback! Not only was the NFL Draft loaded with WR talent, but the free agent market was abnormally strong as well. This upcoming fantasy season is overwhelmingly deep at WR, which is something to consider as you start mock drafts in a month or two. We’ll discuss how positional depth should impact your draft strategy in a later article - for now let’s review some notable offseason developments in the WR market and how they’ll impact fantasy value.
DeAndre Hoptkins: Traded to the Arizona Cardinals
In what many are deeming the most lopsided trade in recent history, arguably the top receiver in the NFL finds himself sporting new threads. Nuk now stands as the number one option in an emerging offense led by sophomore standout, Kyler Murray. Sure, Murray isn’t Deshaun Watson - but the Heisman winner had himself an impressive rookie campaign and the arrival of a tried and true number one like Hopkins should only further his development as an NFL quarterback. I can sympathize with fantasy owners who’d prefer Davante Adams or Julio Jones for the security of continuity, but DeAndre Hopkins remains an elite fantasy asset with Round 1 value.
Amari Cooper: 5-year $100M deal with the Dallas Cowboys
Money, money, money, money! Jerry Jones finally folded and gave Amari Cooper the WR1 contract he’d been asking for. Even though Cooper’s situation remains the same entering his sixth season in the NFL, it’s important that we temper expectations. As my fantasy idol and Athletic Senior Writer, Jake Ciely, pointed out - Cooper recorded six single digit games in 2019, and his top three scoring games accounted for over 40% of his total points. Coop is an elite talent, but his inconsistency, the emergence of Michael Gallup, and the arrival of CeeDee Lamb makes me skeptical. I wouldn’t hesitate to make Cooper my WR2, but I prefer to have more consistency out of my WR1 slot.
Stefon Diggs: Traded to Buffalo Bills
With Tom Brady moving south to Florida like most elderly New Englanders, the AFC East is officially up for grabs. The Bills looked to be the most complete team in the division even before the arrival of their new receiver. Oddly enough, John Brown and Stefon Diggs finished alongside one another as WR20 and WR21 in 2019. The arrival of Diggs devalues Brown more, but both need to be downgraded heading into 2020. Despite the media’s criticism of Kirk Cousins, he’s one of the more accurate passers in the NFL. Josh Allen has a hand cannon, but his accuracy is often called into question. Unless Allen can sharpen up, there simply won’t be enough volume between Diggs, Brown, and Beasley to constitute WR2 numbers. Diggs and Brown become high ceiling WR3 plays, and Beasley is demoted to WR4/5 territory.
AJ Green: Franchise Tagged by Cincinnati Bengals
Don’t let recency bias fool you. AJ Green has always been a force to be reckoned with when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, the perennial pro bowler hasn’t played a down of football since Week 13 of the 2018 season. Make no mistake, Green is a WR1 talent who’ll now be lining up with the 2019 Heisman winner and number one overall pick in the NFL Draft, Joe Burrow. Green’s extensive injury history and tremendous ability make him a curious fantasy prospect heading into the 2020 season. My willingness to draft Green will be solely dependent on his ADP. If healthy, he should be a surefire WR2. But I’m not sure I’d be willing to roll the dice on such a risky investment in the 4th or 5th round. On the other hand, if Green’s value spills down into the 6th or 7th? You better believe I’m picking him up. As fantasy draft season approaches, we’ll have to monitor Green’s health closely.
Emmanuel Sanders: 2-year $16M deal with New Orleans Saints
The 49ers acquired Sanders last season to be their number one option on the outside, and now he’ll be second fiddle in New Orleans. Michael Thomas remains the undisputed top wide receiver in fantasy football, but that doesn’t mean Sanders won’t hold value of his own. Drew Brees remains one of the most accurate passers in the league, and Sanders should be a regular target through the air. Sanders was WR36 in his time with the Niners, a team that ran the ball 49% of the time. New Orleans ran the ball just 40% of the time last season, so he figures to remain in the WR3/4 range.
Robby Anderson: 2-year $20M deal with Carolina Panthers
The acquisition of Robby Anderson is a curious one for the Panthers. DJ Moore is the clear number one option on the outside, and Curtis Samuel shares a similar skillset with the newly acquired Anderson. Both run with 4.3 speed, and neither of the two have played with particularly strong quarterbacks. We’ll see if Teddy Two Gloves is the answer in Carolina, but Anderson’s involvement is a question mark. At best, he’s the third wheel behind CMC and Moore. Anderson might be worth a late round flier, but he’s nothing more than a boom or bust FLEX play until further notice.
Brandin Cooks: Traded to the Houston Texans
Despite a reasonably productive tenure in the NFL, Cooks is no stranger to the trading block. In fact, this is the third time the young wideout has been traded in just six seasons. This time, he was brought in to help alleviate the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Waston will have no shortage of speed on the outside. Cooks, Fuller, and Stills each logged sub-4.4 40 times at the combine - but my concern is market share. Between those three, Darren Fells and Jordan Atkins at TE, and the newly acquired Randall Cobb, who knows who’ll be “the guy” week to week? Cooks is a volatile FLEX option whose value will increase if/when the oft injured Will Fuller misses time.
Breshad Perriman: 1-year $8M deal with New York Jets
When Mike Evans and Chris Godwin finished last season on the sideline, the fourth year reserve sprung into fantasy ‘must add’ status. Perriman made the most of his chances with 25 receptions for 506 yards and 5 TDs over his last 5 games. That productivity earned him a handsome one year deal with the Jets. Perriman will compete for the number one spot on the outside with Denzel Mims, the big-bodied rookie out of Baylor. The two offer contrasting skill sets; Mims wins using his size and physicality, while Perriman is often overlooked as one of the fastest players in the entire league. With Jamison Crowder manning the slot, both Mims and Perriman should see plenty of playing time. Why not take a flier on Perriman late in the draft? He certainly has more upside than some of the other names on this list.
Randall Cobb: 3-year $27M deal with Houston Texans
With so much speed on the outside, Cobb figures to stand in as the Texan’s primary slot receiver. With that said, the former Kentucky Wildcat hasn’t been a fantasy difference maker since 2015. He belongs on a roster, but he shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a WR5.
Nelson Agholor: 1-year $1M deal with Las Vegas Raiders
At just above the veteran minimum, Nelson Agholor penned a one year deal with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders then turned around and selected Henry Ruggs III in the first round, which means Agholor might be fourth or fifth in line for targets behind Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, and Ruggs. Agholor is a shot in the dark in the later rounds of your fantasy draft whose fantasy relevance depends solely on an injury to one or two of the aforementioned names.
