Hog Rates & Fantasy Football
Whether you like it or not, advanced analytics have become an integral component of professional sports. The seemingly overnight phenomenon has divided die-hard fan bases into groups of ‘stubborn traditionalists’ and ‘modern visionaries’. No matter your opinion, the analytics movement is empowering the development of new strategies within the world of fantasy sports. The NFL was arguably the last of the major professional sports to adopt this new philosophy, and it’s given fantasy owners a new set of quantifiable resources to determine a player’s potential value.
Look, I’m not gonna go all ‘Billy Beane’ on you and tell you to drop Robert Woods for Jamison Crowder because he gets targeted more. But it’s important to note that as you make tweaks to your roster over the course of the season, advanced stats like Opportunity Share, Red Zone Touches, and Hog Rate can help you make the right decisions.
Hog Rate: measures a player’s rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. It quantifies how often a receiver is targeted while on the field.
Hog Rate is one of my preferred metrics to consider when evaluating a WR’s/TE’s fantasy value. Rather than measuring a player’s snap count, Hog Rate hones in on that player’s involvement on passing plays. In a nutshell, it tells us how often a player is targeted when he’s on the field. A high snap share is important, but it can often be misleading. TE O.J. Howard is a great example. In 2019, Howard recorded a 79.6% snap share - the 11th highest in the NFL amongst TE’s. You’d think that might indicate a strong fantasy season, right? Wrong. Howard was on the field quite a bit, but he registered the #32 ranked TE hog rate, at just 7.6%. The promise was there, but I too was burned by his TE32 finish last season. It just goes to show, when evaluating a receiver’s potential, both snap share and hog rate need to be taken into account.
So how should we use Hog Rate to our advantage? It’s tough to employ during fantasy drafts because so much can change over the course of an offseason. Coaches get fired and players switch teams, which means a Player A’s offensive involvement is subject to change year over year. To leverage Hog Rate effectively, it’s best applied during the season as you scan the waiver wire and analyze trade propositions. Players like DJ Chark and Cole Beasley went undrafted in most 2019 fantasy leagues, but they soon proved their fantasy relevance by finishing as WR16 and WR34 respectively. Both Chark and Beasley tied with the 24th ranked Hog Rate in the NFL, at 15.3%. Had we been aware of that usage going into the season, you’re damn right these guys would’ve been rostered earlier.
TD’s have a huge impact on fantasy performance, but they’re fickle and unpredictable. That’s why I’m so hesitant to invest in players like Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs, and that’s why I love using Hog Rate during trade discussions. Both Diggs and Cooper are supreme talents, but their fantasy production was highly reliant upon TD’s in 2019. Diggs finished the season as WR21 with 6 TD’s and the 61st ranked Hog Rate. Cooper finished as WR9 with 8 TD’s and the league’s 33rd ranked Hog Rate. Coop’s best three games accounted for over 40% of his season’s total, and Diggs’ top two performances accounted for over 30% of his total points scored. Don’t get me wrong, I would’ve loved to roster both players last season. But in a vacuum, I would’ve been hesitant to trade for one of them as my WR1 because their production was so skewed by the endzone.
There are infinite ways to construct a roster in fantasy football, much of which boils down to personal preference. While others may prefer big play names like Cooper and Diggs, I’m more keen on consistent passing game contributors like Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry - because I’ll willingly accept their steady floors, and I’ll welcome TD’s as they come. So, as you examine the waiver wire or participate in trade talks next season, I highly encourage that you capitalize on advanced stats like Hog Rate. It’ll help you identify underappreciated talent on the waiver wire, and it may provide an added layer of clarity during trade talks.
