Evaluating the Rookie RBs
The 2020 WR class dominated draft headlines, but there were plenty of talented RBs to choose from as well. Many of whom are destined to become fantasy relevant, though several landing spots raise more concern than optimism. Let’s run through the first three rounds of the draft and interpret each rookie tailback’s fantasy potential.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 32nd overall by the Kansas City Chiefs
There was a clear first tier in this year’s class - Swift, Taylor, and Edwards-Helaire. After a dominant junior campaign averaging 6.6 YPC for a grand total of 1,414 yards in the SEC - not to mention 55 receptions for 453 yards through the air - Edwards-Helaire will be inserted as the lead back in the NFL’s top offense. The former LSU Tiger’s physicality between the tackles paired with his ability to catch the ball makes him a perfect fit for the reigning Super Bowl champs. Andy Reid juggled tailbacks all year in 2019, and now he has a true bellcow to count on behind Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City will remain a “pass first, run second” offense, but that shouldn’t have any effect on the Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy outlook. The fact that Andy Reid has already compared the first rounder to Brian Westbrook should make prospective owners drool. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be drafted as a low RB1 in your fantasy draft (though I can’t justify that price).
D’Andre Swift, 35th overall by the Detroit Lions
Kerryon ‘My Wayward Son’ Johnson was a short-lived trend in fantasy football. Following a promising (yet stinted) rookie season in which he became the first Detroit Lion RB to rush for 100 yards in a game since 2013, Johnson disappointed in 2019 after sustaining another knee injury. Matt Patricia’s back is up against the wall following a 9-22-1 start to his head coaching career. He and GM Bob Quinn are officially on the hot seat, and they need to win now if they intend to keep their jobs. Sensing the pressure, the Lions targeted high impact ‘win now’ players like Jeff Okudah, and D’Andre Swift. Swift was widely regarded as a top prospect in this year’s class - known for his burst, agility, and three-down skillset. No one can deny Swift’s upside in fantasy football, but his production will be capped by the presence of Kerryon Johnson. We should expect some sort of timeshare and await for further development. Draft Swift as a FLEX for now, with strong RB2 upside once he takes over lead duties.
Jonathan Taylor, 41st overall by the Indianapolis Colts
As I sat back and watched the second round unfold, this selection stood out as an anomaly. Marlon Mack was fantastic in 14 games last season, ultimately finishing as RB20. Indianapolis was largely disappointing as a whole, but the production they received from their third-year back was a notable bright spot. The Colts have certainly improved this offseason after recruiting Philip Rivers and bolstering the D-line with DeForest Buckner - so why trade up and select Jonathon Taylor in the 2nd round? Taylor’s collegiate production and 4.39 speed justify the Wisconsin Badger as a Round 1 talent, but the presence of a more than capable tailback in Marlon Mack makes Taylor’s fantasy outlook somewhat murky. Timeshares are just part of the business now. So with Mack and the pass-catching Nyheim Hines still around, I’m not comfortable drafting Taylor as anything more than an RB2 - and even that might be a stretch.
Cam Akers, 52nd overall by the Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers never received the notoriety he deserved for his dominance at the collegiate level - mainly because of Florida State’s mediocrity in the top-heavy ACC. The dual threat high school quarterback is now the heir to Todd Gurley’s throne as the starting RB of the Los Angeles Rams. Akers’ versatility as a runner and a pass-catcher make him an ideal fit for Sean McVay’s playsheet. With that said, Akers will be challenged behind what PFF ranked as the second worst OL in the league. Gurley relied upon volume and touchdowns to reach RB14 numbers last season, which means Akers will have to do the same if we’re going to value the rookie as a top twenty fantasy tailback. But if there’s one thing I know about fantasy football, it’s that volume always trumps talent. Even behind a poor offensive line, Cam Akers has the talent and the opportunity to establish himself as a low-end RB2 in 2020.
J.K. Dobbins, 55th overall by the Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins leaves Ohio State with rushing numbers that rival that of Ezekial Elliot during his time as a Buckeye. Dobbins fell to the Ravens late in the second round, where he’ll join the most relentless rushing attack in the NFL. If not for the presence of Mark Ingram Jr., in all likelihood Dobbins would be the first or second rookie running back to come off the board. Instead, he’ll replace Gus Edwards in a complimentary role. But make no mistake - Dobbins should be rostered in all formats. If the aging Mark Ingram were to sustain an injury, the rookie would enter ‘must start’ territory. For now, he’s a handcuff - though we may be talking about him as an RB1/2 as soon as 2021.
A.J. Dillon, 62nd overall by the Green Bay Packers
The Packers were lucky to be 13-3 last season - they weren’t nearly as good as that record indicated. But they were somehow one win away from reaching the Super Bowl with a depleted receiving corps and an average defense. Pretty straightforward offseason priorities right? Give Aaron Rodgers another weapon in the passing game alongside Davante Adams, and maybe reinforce the defensive? But naw. After shocking the sports world by selecting Aaron Rodgers’ eventual successor in the first round, the Packers doubled down with another questionable decision in the second. Aaron Jones was electric in 2019, good enough to finish the season as RB2 - second only to Christian McCaffrey. And Jamaal Williams was decent in relief, finishing as RB34. Together, the two formed one of the more dynamic RB duos in the league. Enter; A.J. Dillon. The bruiser out of Boston College weighed in at a beefy 6.0 ft, 247 lbs at the NFL Combine. But what will the volume look like? Dillon’s size may justify goal line usage, but Lafleur would be a fool to take the ball out of Jones’ hands. Drafting A.J. Dillon in the second round doesn’t make Green Bay a better team, but it’s telling that Matt Lafelur prefers a Derrick Henry-esque runner from his time in Tennessee, and that he has no plans to re-sign Jones to a long term contract in 2021. Dillon is best viewed as a handcuff.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, 76th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For a hot sec, Ronald Jones II was a bonafide RB2 in what appears to be a legit Tampa Bay offense. Let’s note that RoJo was drafted in 2018, during the Dirk Koetter era of Buccaneer football. After forgoing the RB position in the 2019 NFL Draft, new Head Coach Bruce Arians spent significant draft capital selecting a player who he views as a schematic fit. Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a lone bright spot in Vanderbilt’s overmatched football program last season, as he managed to rush for north of 1,000 yards in the SEC. His receiving numbers weren’t head-turning, though that’s also been one of RoJo’s main criticisms. Dare Ogunbowale figures to keep his role as the passing-down back, at least until Jones or Vaughn can prove they’re capable of a three-down workload. The job will ultimately be won in training camp, and I for one can’t wait to see how it plays out - because there’s easily enough volume to constitute top twenty production assuming it doesnt turn into a split workload.
Zack Moss, 86th overall by the Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary was RB31 in his rookie campaign despite missing four games due to a strained hamstring. Frank Gore filled in admirably during that absence, and now the AARP-eligible geriatric will fill a similar role behind Le’Veon Bell and the New York Jets. Powerful Zack Moss should step right in and own the smaller portion of that timeshare in the Buffalo backfield. Gore owned 37.1% of the snapshare last season, and as much as I love the veteran tailback, I think it’s fair to assume that Moss has the juice to do more with those opportunities. Moss should be drafted as an RB4 with the potential for more should Devin Singletary miss any time.
Darrynton Evans, 93rd overall to the Tennessee Titans
Darrynton Evans was a monster in the Sun Belt Conference, and the Titans were smart to add a capable halfback to their roster without spending too much draft capital. Why? Because the possibility of a Derrick Henry holdout was still looming at the time. Evans should still be drafted as one of 2020’s top handcuffs in the event of a Derrick Henry injury.
