Evaluating the Rookie WRs

The talent in this year’s wide receiver class is undeniable. We saw a record 13 WR’s fall off the board in the first 2 rounds of the draft. 13! The previous record was 12, set by the coveted 2015 class which included names like OBJ, Mike Evans, and Davantae Adams. As we analyze how each rookie’s fantasy value, it’s wise that we slightly downgrade each player given a lack of OTA’s and no preseason games. Being an NFL WR is a tough job even with a full off-season of preparation.

Henry Ruggs, 12th overall by the Las Vegas Raiders

In true Al Davis fashion, the Raiders selected the fastest guy in the draft. Henry Ruggs’ 4.27 forty time will be put to good use in Las Vegas, who desperately needed another weapon in the passing game. That elite speed often brands wideouts as a down the field threat - and he is! But most of Ruggs’ damage at Alabama came in the short to intermediate game. Considering Derek Carr ranked 18th in Deep Ball Completion % last year, that versatility bodes well for the Alabama rookie. Gruden will surely get his new toy involved in the offense, and Ruggs’ game-breaking speed should constitute FLEX status, with a few top ten finishes baked into the season.

Jerry Jeudy, 15th overall by the Denver Broncos

The 49er fan in me would’ve loved to see Jerry Jeudy in red and gold, but I’ve learned to never doubt the almighty duo of John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan. Instead, Jeudy finds himself with Jon Elway’s newly revamped offense. Drew Lock exceeded expectations in a small sample size last season, and now he’ll have an even stronger supporting cast. Branded by many as the most complete prospect in the 2020 class, Jeudy will have to compete for targets with sophomore standout Courtland Sutton, fellow rookie K.J. Hamler, and TE Noah Fant. It’s also worth mentioning that the dynamic backfied of Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay are more than capable pass catchers as well. Drew Lock is still a question mark, and Denver’s abundance of weapons makes it hard to predict volume. Jeudy shouldn’t be drafted as anything more than a WR3 until further notice.

CeeDee Lamb, 17th overall by the Dallas Cowboys

Did anyone see that coming? I’m not even sure Jerry Jones himself expected to land CeeDee Lamb at 17th overall. It was a somewhat controversial pick given the presence of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, but you can’t blame Dallas for picking the best guy available. Dak’s fantasy stock is on the rise, but the addition of Lamb adds yet another mouth to feed in the fantasy-friendly Cowboy offense. Cooper was already a volatile fantasy asset, and Gallup made huge strides in 2019. Insert Lamb into the lineup, and I’m not sure how we can possibly predict which of the three will be ‘the guy’ week to week. It’s going to be a roll of the dice every Sunday. Much like the ‘18/’19 Rams’ trio of Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods (who also played alongside an elite RB1). In such a stacked depth chart, Lamb should be drafted as a FLEX option with upside.

Jalen Reagor, 21st overall by the Philadelphia Eagles

One of my favorite NFL Draft traditions is the annual circulation of viral videos showing fans curse their team’s decision-making ability. Philly certainly made their voices heard following the selection of Jalen Reagor, and especially Jalen Hurts. Focusing on Reagor, he’ll step into a shallow depth chart with the oft-injured and aging duo of Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson. Zach Ertz is clearly Carson Wentz’s preferred target, and Reagor’s big play threat should certainly open up the field for their star TE. I’ll be looking to add Reagor as a bench stash in the later rounds of the draft, as his value will certainly increase should Jeffrey/Jackson be forced to miss any time.

Justin Jefferson, 22nd overall by the Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson won’t have the same hype that Lamb and Jeudy will generate come draft season, but he has the clearest path to projectionable volume. With Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo, Jefferson should step right in as Kirk Cousins’ number two option behind Adam Thielen. The Vikings ran the ball more than they threw it last season, and we should anticipate more of the same in 2020. With that said, Stefon Diggs finished as WR21 last season - and while that’s a high bar to set, 5-7 targets per game should be well within reach for the rookie out of LSU. I’ll conservatively view Jefferson as a WR4, though he just might be one of the safest options in the entire rookie class.

Brandon Aiyuk, 25th overall by the San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo is surrounded by a gang of YAC monsters in San Francisco. George Kittle ranked 1st amongst TE’s last season, Deebo Samuel ranked 5th among WR’s, and the incoming Brandon Aiyuk averaged a ridiculous 21.0 YAC in his last season at Arizona State. Sure - the PAC 12 isn’t the SEC, but that’s a ridiculous number. Aiyuk’s elite athleticism will make the 49ers a better team, but his presence will be felt more on the field than in your fantasy lineup. Aiyuk will fill in for the departed Emmanuel Sanders, who was WR36 during his time with the 49ers. He deserves a roster spot, but the 49ers are a run-first team and Aiyuk shouldn’t be drafted as anything higher than a WR4.

Tee Higgins, 33rd overall by the Cincinnati Bengals

The Joe Burrow era in Cincinnati is underway, and HC Zac Taylor is doing all he can to make sure he’s successful from that start. The Bengals will enter 2020 with one of the deepest WR depth charts in the NFL; AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, John Ross III, and the big-bodied Tee Higgins. Of those five, Higgins is the first to be drafted during Zac Taylor’s tenure. That may indicate immediate usage, but competing for snaps amongst that group is a tall order. The Bengals offense has the chance to be fantasy-relevant in 2020, but Higgins is too much of a question mark for me to invest in.

Michael Pittman Jr., 34 overall by the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ offense was rebranded following the acquisition of Philip Rivers, and HC Frank Reich was quick to help out his new gunslinger by selecting a talented WR with their first pick in the draft. Rivers struggled behind a porous offensive line in Los Angeles last season, but now he’ll be protected by a group who many consider to be the best in the NFL. TY Hilton will assuredly remain the top option, but Pittman Jr. should see plenty of action on the other side of the field. Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal remain on the roster, but Pittmann’s sheer physical size substantiates consistent usage - especially in the red zone. He won’t be very expensive, so take a flier on the USC-grad in the later rounds of your draft.

Laviska Shenault Jr., 42nd overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars

The swiss army knife out of Colorado is coming off a core muscle surgery, and he’ll be inserted into a sub-par offense led by Gardner Minschew. DJ Chark is the number one guy in Jacksonville, with Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook sharing snaps behind him. Shenault’s talent is undeniable, but a gauntlet of recent surgeries provides reason for skepticism. Unless you want to roll the dice in the last round or two of your draft, Shenault can be safely left on the Waiver Wire until further notice.

K.J. Hamler, 46th overall by the Denver Broncos

After selecting Jerry Jeudy in the first round, the Broncos doubled down on another talented rookie receiver in the second round. K.J. Hamler’s game-breaking speed will demand respect over the top, likely making Drew Lock’s life easier underneath. OC Pat Shurmer has typically employed a 3 WR set as his base offense in years past, which tells us that Hamler should see his fair share of snaps. But still, it’s likely that the former Nittany Lion’s best case scenario is to be third in line for targets with an unproven quarterback under center. Select Hamler deep in your draft as a lottery ticket. Maybe he and Lock develop a strong rapport, and his value would spike should Jeudy or Sutton be forced to miss any time.

Chase Claypool, 49th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Physically speaking - Chase Claypool is a nightmare. The man is 6-foot-4, 235 lbs, with a 4.42 forty yard dash. Scary stuff. But the rookie's involvement in the Steelers’ offense is up in the air. Thankfully, the return of Big Ben automatically upgrades the entire offense. Juju remains the undisputed WR1 on the team, but the WR2 is somewhat up for grabs between Dionte Johnson, James Washington, and Chase Claypool. Neither of the three have any extensive experience working with Roethlisberger, which tells me the job will be won in training camp. That’ll be a storyline worth following in Pittsburgh.

Van Jefferson, 57th overall by the Los Angeles Rams

Out with Brandin Cooks, in with Van Jefferson! The Rams were notably underwhelming in 2019, which led to an offensive makeover this offseason. Jefferson will have to compete for the WR3 role with Josh Reynolds, behind studs Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The emergence of Tyler Higbee shouldn’t be ignored either. Jefferson will certainly be involved in Sean McVay’s offense, but he doesn’t warrant a draft pick yet.

Denzel Mims, 59th overall by the New York Jets

The Jets WR situation could be sneaky. It doesn’t have any sex appeal, but it would behoove you to keep an eye on these names comes draft season - Denzel Mims included. Jamison Crowder will assuredly hold things down in the slot, which means Mims and the newly-signed Breshad Perriman will step right in as starters on the outside. With Le’Veon Bell in the backfield and a bolstered offensive line, Sam Darnold enters his third year in the NFL with his best supporting cast yet. Mims should have no problem drawing 60-70 targets this season, constituting WR4 numbers. Let’s just hope Darnold doesn’t get mono again.